Nathan VanSteenkiste ‘26, Contributing Writer
The 2025 NASCAR season is only a few weeks away, promising another year of close finishes, crashes, and controversy.
Last year, the series saw 18 different winners and historic margins of victory—0.001 tenths of a second at Kansas and a three-wide photo finish at the Atlanta spring race. Tensions amplified in the playoffs, where several instances of disqualification shook up the playoff grid, and many title favorites did not qualify for the Championship race.
Without a doubt, this year will be just as—if not more—competitive. To prepare, here is a look at the 20 drivers with the best chances of becoming one of the 16 playoff drivers come November and their likelihood of doing so, whether it be 99.99 percent or a long shot.
The Virtual Locks:
These drivers have the best odds to make the playoffs this year, and it would be shocking to see any of these drivers not qualify.
Joey Logano: The reigning Champion and driver of the No. 22 Penske Ford Mustang enters the 2025 season with the most momentum that could easily translate into an early-season victory. Despite earning his third title last season, Logano had an extremely up-and-down year; he entered the postseason ninth, with only one win and four top-five finishes, which are not the stats one might expect from the eventual Champion. In the playoffs, however, Logano won the initial race, which guaranteed him a spot in the next round. Like earlier in the season, Logano’s Round of 12 performance was ninth-place worthy, with only one top-10 finish, and he was eliminated. But, after playoff driver Alex Bowman failed post-race inspection—and NASCAR disqualified him and stripped him of his points—Logano was granted the final spot into the Round of 8. At Las Vegas, the next race, Logano went to Victory Lane, and thanks to this lucky break, he advanced to the championship. Logano would win the finale—and the championship trophy—at Phoenix, cementing an incredible run from eliminated to champion. Though the first half of Logano’s 2024 season is forgettable, his ability to show up when the pressure is at its highest is why he will contend for another championship this season.
Ryan Blaney: Blaney, who drives the No. 12 Penske Ford Mustang, had a strong playoff performance this year, finishing second, just behind his teammate Logano. The 2023 NASCAR Champion won three races—Iowa, Pocono, and the fall playoff race at Martinsville—and had four top-fives in eight races to begin last year. One of those top-fives came in the spring at Martinsville, where he will likely be one of the favorites to win this coming season. Blaney will surely be in the playoffs next year, and if his team can build off of their stellar playoff run from last year and remain consistent toward the latter half of the regular season, he could be a threat to win his second title.
William Byron: Last year, Byron was a favorite for the championship early on, winning three races within two months of the season, including one of NASCAR’s biggest races: the Daytona 500. He also showed impressive versatility with his wins, scoring one at a superspeedway (Daytona), one at a short track (Martinsville), and one at a road course (COTA)—all vastly different types of tracks. However, Byron has not been in Victory Lane since late March, which can discourage a driver. And although he managed a third-place finish in the overall standings, he will likely be hungry for much more next season; still, coming off of a three-win season, the driver of the No. 24 Hendrick Chevrolet is a definitive lock for this season’s playoffs.
Tyler Reddick: Reddick, the driver of the No. 45 23XI Toyota Camry, had the most consistent regular season last year, entering the 2024 playoffs as the regular season Champion with a considerable point cushion. However, Reddick struggled in the playoffs and did not score a single top-10 finish in the Round of 16 or Round of 12. He only advanced due to having enough “playoff points,” which he obtained throughout the season by winning races, stages, and the regular season championship. In the Round of 8, Reddick finished outside the top 30 in two races. However, at Homestead, he pulled off one of the most impressive passes of the season to win the race and advance to the final four, where he would finish fourth in the final standings. Towards the end of last season, Reddick’s team, 23XI Racing, and another team, Front Row Motorsports, filed a lawsuit against NASCAR and its charter policies—a charter automatically gives a team a spot in every NASCAR race, allowing them to compete for a championship—claiming that they do not promote competition and growth. 23XI and Front Row refused to sign the newest charter agreement. But, a judge recently granted an injunction, allowing them to keep their charters—and therefore automatic qualification into races—while the lawsuit is ongoing, according to Motorsport.com. Because Reddick will not have to worry about potentially not making a race, which would make him ineligible for the playoffs, and due to his regular season success this year, all signs suggest that he will make the playoffs next year.
Christopher Bell: Bell nearly qualified for the Championship 4 last season, but after he committed a safety violation by supposedly riding the wall when passing Bubba Wallace in the final corner at Martinsville, NASCAR stripped him of several positions—and points—preventing him from advancing. This rule was introduced after 2022 when Ross Chastain rode the wall in the final corner at the same track. Chastain drove at a dangerous speed, risking his own safety and the safety of others, to pass several slower cars and gain enough points to advance to the Championship 4. The viral move was dubbed the “Hail Melon” online and appeared on Sports Center. Bell’s move was deemed by many as not as extreme, and he told reporters after the race, “I understand the rule is made to prevent people from riding the wall, but my move was completely different than Ross riding the wall.” Bell had a great year overall, securing three victories, and will be the favorite at several tracks this year, including New Hampshire, where he has finished in the top two in three of the last four races. The driver of the No. 20 JGR Toyota Camry will be back in the playoffs this year, looking for revenge.
Kyle Larson: Larson, the 2021 Champion, and driver of the No. 5 Hendrick Chevrolet, had one of the best seasons of all drivers in the field. He had six wins—four were in the regular season—and finished second in the regular season Championship despite missing a race. For context, Larson attempted to race the Indianapolis 500 and Coke 600 on the same weekend, hours apart. But, after the Indy 500 was postponed by a few hours due to rain, Larson was late for the Coke 600, which was also rain-affected. The race was canceled midway through, but not before Larson got in the car, meaning he only raced in the 500. Luckily for Larson, NASCAR granted him a waiver, allowing him to keep his playoff eligibility. He won in both of the first two rounds; however, in the Round of 8, after three fellow playoff drivers won and automatically qualified for the Championship 4, Larson did not have enough points to beat his teammate Byron for the final spot. Many fans were outraged and called for changes to be made to the playoff system, calling it ridiculous that the winningest driver did not have a shot to win the championship. Despite the questionable playoff system, Larson will definitely find his way to Victory Lane this season—likely several times—and will have another shot at a title.
Chase Elliot: Elliot, NASCAR’s 2024 Most Popular Driver, had a very consistent season but few wins to show for it. Although Elliot, who drives the No. 9 Hendrick Chevrolet, won only one race—at Texas—he had the best average finish of all full-time drivers: 11.7. After winning five races and the Championship in 2020, Elliot has not matched these stats since and will look to do so this year. Often recognized as one of the best road course racers in the sport early in his career, Elliot has not won at a road course since 2021 at Road America. Considering that the schedule has added more road course races in the past few seasons, a good for Elliot this season would be to finally return to Victory Lane at a track like Watkins Glen or COTA. Regardless, Elliot will undoubtedly be back in the playoffs this year.
Denny Hamlin: Driver of the No. 11 JGR Toyota Camry and part-owner of 23XI, Hamlin will have a busy 2025. As mentioned, 23XI is busy with its lawsuit against NASCAR, and Hamlin has been very vocal on social media and his podcast “Actions Detrimental” about the status of the suit. Meanwhile, Hamlin had a strong 2024 season, winning three races and advancing to the Round of 8. Unfortunately for Hamlin, despite being one of the most accomplished drivers in the sport with 54 total wins, he failed to make it to the Championship 4 and still has never won a Cup Series Championship. It has been rumored that Hamlin is reaching the end of his career, so there are only a few more seasons for the veteran to finally win a title—one of Hamlin’s biggest motivators. And since Hamlin, according to the Sports Rush, is the “only driver to have qualified for the playoffs in every season since 2014,” it is highly likely that he will be there again.
Chances Are High:
These drivers could very well be virtual locks, but there is at least one factor keeping them from the top category.
Alex Bowman: Bowman could be a lock simply because of the team he drivers for: Hendrick Motorsports. Last season, the driver of the No. 48 had a solid year and won a race—granted, it was a rain-affected street course race. He showed speed and the skill needed to be competitive, silencing some fans who viewed him as untalented or the team’s weakest member, and gave himself something to build on. After last year, Bowman said, “We definitely have the potential as a team, we’re all capable. Just need to put it all together.” If Bowman can be consistent, stringing together some strong runs or winning a race or two, he will definitely be in the playoffs—and competitive. However, there is a chance he falters under the pressure.
Chris Buescher: Buescher could be a lock simply because of his 2023 performance, where he won three races. In 2024, however, Buescher missed the playoffs and finished 17th in the standings. He went winless in the regular season, and several surprise winners—when you win a race, you automatically qualify for the playoffs, unless, of course, there are more than 16 winners—pushed the cutline lower and lower, so much so that he could not advance on points. The driver of the No. 17 RFK Ford Mustang went on to win a race at Watkins Glen during the playoffs—despite not being in the hunt for the Championship—showing that Buscher is still capable of winning. In 2025, Buescher can qualify if he wins in the regular season; if not, he risks being the first driver out again this year.
Brad Keselowski: Keselowski could be a lock because he snapped his 110-race winless streak in 2024. The 2012 Cup Series Champion, part-owner of RFK racing, and driver of the No. 6 RFK Ford Mustang had an up-and-down 2024. Despite being relatively consistent throughout the regular season, Keselowski had a disappointing playoffs, surprising some, and was eliminated in the first round; he finished 19th, 26th, and 26th again. Keselowski also struggled at road courses, unlike his teammate Buescher, who won at a road course this year. Keselowski needs to perform better when the pressure is on or if he is in a must-win scenario. Regardless, he is still a veteran and has good odds to make the playoffs again this year.
Kyle Busch: Busch could be a lock for the playoffs because he is a two-time champion with the most wins when you combine his results across NASCAR’s top three series. With that said, Busch’s 2024 season was definitely his worst to date. He managed five top fives across the whole season with no wins, which ended a 19-year streak of winning at least one Cup Series race and failed to qualify for the playoffs. The driver of the No. 8 RCR Chevrolet showed some promise towards the end of the regular season when he finished in the top five three races in a row and nearly won his way into the playoffs in back-to-back weeks—only to lose and finish second both times. And one cannot blame Busch for all of the team’s problems, for he is a veteran driver, and skill was not always the issue. At times, Busch’s cars were slow for no apparent reason. He was especially slow at short tracks, finishing 25th at Bristol—one of his best tracks—twice. Not to mention, 16th and 28th at Martinsville. Often, Busch’s cars were so slow that he would make more mistakes driving them; he would push his car to the limit, getting everything out of it—and still, he had little success. So, what makes him worthy of being in this tier? In 2023, his first season at RCR, Busch won three races, had 10 top-five finishes, and 17 top-10s. If RCR can find a way to get speed back into Busch’s cars, he will not have to take so many risks, leading to better finishes and potential wins. At the end of the day, Busch is a veteran and knows his way around a racecar better than most people on track. Furthermore, he is one of the favorites heading into this year’s Daytona 500, as he had his best performances on superspeedways last season and has never won NASCAR’s biggest race.
So You’re Saying There’s a Shot:
Drivers in this category have made the playoffs in the past and have a good chance of doing so again, but only if they can do one thing.
Bubba Wallace: To make the playoffs, he must win early. This year, Wallace went winless for the second year in a row. After winning a race in both 2021 and 2022, fans of the No. 23 23XI team haven’t had a victory to celebrate in a while. Something interesting about both of his wins was that they came late in the season and during the playoffs—though he was not a playoff driver. In 2023, Wallace qualified for the playoffs, pointing his way in for the first time, and made it to the Round of 12. This year, surprise winners at the very end of the season forced him below the cutline, like Chris Buescher, and he did not make the top 16. To avoid this, Bubba must come out strong and win immediately, or at least during the first half of a season. Wallace keeps putting himself in a position where he needs to be perfect, and he has to take risks to potentially get a win. If the No. 23 team can find a way to win early in the season, it alleviates some pressure and allows his team to grow. Last year, Wallace finished fifth in the two opening races; if he were to win one of those races this year, it would boost his confidence immensely.
Ross Chastain: To make the playoffs, he must build on his momentum from last year. Like Buescher and Wallace, Chastain missed out on the playoffs last year after he was forced below the cut by the upset winners. Also like Buescher, Chastain won a race toward the end of last season, reaching Victory Lane in Kansas. To qualify this year, Chastain needs to have more performances like that one, where he was in the right position and capitalized, stealing the lead on a restart with 20 laps to go from Martin Turex Jr., according to ESPN. In 2022, Chastain made headlines with the “Hail Melon,” ultimately advanced to the Championship 4, and finished second in the standings. In 2023, he regressed, finishing ninth in the standings and managed fewer top-fives and top-10s, and although he won two races, one was the very last one of the year—and he was eliminated from the playoffs at this point. Many assumed Chastain would enter 2024 with momentum and find early success. He did not. The driver of the No. 1 Trackhouse Chevrolet regressed even more, and his win total and top-five total dropped. To be successful this year, he needs to learn from last year and strike while his team is hot.
Ty Gibbs: To make the playoffs, he must forget the end of last season and finally get his first win. Gibbs had a strong sophomore season and improved his stats, but after two seasons in the No. 54 JGR Toyota Camry, Gibbs is still missing a victory. After rising through the NASCAR ranks, winning in his first career start in the Xfinity Series in 2021—NASCAR’s second-highest series—and winning the Championship in his first full-time Xfinity season in 2022, Gibbs was promoted to Cup in 2023. That year, he was named the Cup Series Rookie of the Year, finishing a respectable 18th in points. In 2024, Gibbs had eight top-fives and 12 top-10s and led over 400 laps, culminating in his first playoff berth. However, Gibbs was eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. And things began to spiral from there, as he finished 30th or worse in the season’s final five races. Gibbs needs to shake off last season and focus on the future. He had a relatively clean season last year, avoiding drama and controversy—something he struggled with in Xfinity. The pressure is on for Gibbs to finally get his first win.
Chase Briscoe: To make the playoffs, he must adjust quickly. Briscoe enters 2025 in a new ride: the #19 JGR Toyota Camry. After Martin Truex Jr. retired at the end of the season, leaving big shoes to fill, and Briscoe’s former team, Stewart-Haas Racing, closed its doors following the 2024 season, the partnership seemed inevitable. For Briscoe, though, there will likely be an adjustment period, as JGR’s cars are a different manufacturer than his previous team—he is switching from Ford to Toyota. And Briscoe needs to make this period as short as possible. Last year, Briscoe was in an unideal points position and had to sneak into the playoffs by winning the regular season finale at Darlington. Ideally, he will not have to repeat history, and the partnership will work out nicely for both sides.
Shane van Gisbergen “SVG”: To make the playoffs, he must win on a road course. After bursting onto the scene in 2023, winning his first career start in NASCAR at the inaugural Chicago Street Race—the first time someone has won their first Cup Series start since 1990—SVG landed a ride with Trackhouse in the Xfinity Series. This past year, he won three Xfinity races—all at road courses—and qualified for the 12-driver playoffs, where he finished 12th. As the season progressed, the three-time Supercars Champion improved at speedways, road courses, and superspeedways—track styles he had little to no experience with. In 2024, SVG also made a few Cup Series starts and nearly won the race at Watkins Glen but lost out to Buescher on the final lap. This year, he will race the #88 Trackhouse Chevrolet in the Cup Series, and although he may be overwhelmed on some styles of tracks, at the road courses, he will be a favorite to win. With five road courses in the regular season, SVG may win multiple races this season; however, the Cup Series regulars got the best of him last season—and that could happen again.
Win and You’re In:
These drivers have a shot to make the playoffs, but only if they can pull off an upset victory.
Daniel Suárez: This year, Suárez had one of the most exciting wins of the year at Atlanta—the second race of the season—winning in a three-way photo finish over Kyle Busch and Ryan Blaney by .003 thousandths of a second, locking himself into the playoffs. Following his win, the driver of the No. 99 Trackhouse Chevrolet did not have a subpar season per se, as he advanced to the Round of 12 in the playoffs. But without this win, he would not have even made the playoffs—he would have finished behind all of the drivers he knocked out, like Buescher, Wallace, Chastain, and Busch, in the regular season. With such a competitive field, Suárez will likely need another flashy win.
Michael McDowell: McDowell begins 2025 with a new team—Spire Motorsports—concluding his seven-year relationship with Front Row Motorsports. The 2021 Daytona 500 winner is set to drive the No. 71 Chevrolet and will be a darkouse at road courses. This past year, McDowell had top-five finishes at Sonoma and the Chicago Street Race—both road courses. In 2023, McDowell won at the Indianapolis Roar Course, and it would not be all that surprising to see him repeat history and continue his trend of winning in odd-numbered years.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: Stenhouse Jr. has won four races in his career—all of them have been at superspeedways. In back-to-back seasons, Stenhouse Jr. has found his way to Victory Lane. In 2023, he won the prestigious Daytona 500; last year, he won the fall Talladega race. The driver of the No. 47 Hyak Motorsports Chevrolet is known to play spoiler at drafting tracks, and with five of them on the regular season schedule—two at Daytona, two at Atlanta, and one at Talledega—Stenhouse Jr. has several opportunities to play spoiler.
The 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season will commence on Feb. 2, with an exhibition race at the historic Bowman Gray Stadium. And just two weeks later, NASCAR’s biggest event, the Daytona 500, will occur, premiering on Fox at 2:30 p.m.
Lyon Life 